REASONS |
A new book links the EL NINO weather pattern with key events in our history |
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FREAK weather hit parts of Britain in August 2000, with snow and hail falling in Yorkshire, and flooding in North Wales. It was however nothing more than an unseasonal hiccup when compared with El Nino, the weather phenomenon which has steered the course of human history, according to a new book. El Nino is the periodic disturbance of the great Humboldt ocean current off the coast of Peru every ten, 15 or 20 years. No one knows why it happens, but when it does, it changes the world's weather dramatically. And its history, the book argues... 1450 THE DOWNFALL OF THE AZTEC EMPIRE In 1450, El Nino brought drought and starvation to the small tribe of Aztecs in Mexico. They blamed their new Emperor, Montezuma I, for failing to sacrifice sufficiently to the Gods. So he instigated mass human sacrifices to the raingod Tialoc and, in doing so, a civilisation based on a cult of human sacrifice was established. Thousands of men and women had their hearts torn out by priests on the tops of stone pyramids. When El Nino abated and the rains returned, the sacrifices continued each year as a safeguard. To obtain enough victims for human sacrifice, the Aztecs became overlords of hugh territories, rounding up the inhabitants in hugh nets to be slaughtered. By the time Hernan Cortes, the Spanish conquistador, arrived in 1519 to claim Mexico for the Spaniards, a quarter of a million victims a year were being killed. The Aztec empire was so weakened by loss of manpower that it fell quickly to the Spanish. 1520THE DISCOVERY OF THE PACIFIC Portuguese explorer Ferdinand Magellan crossed the Pacific which was unusually calm because of El Nino, becoming the first man to circumnavigate the globe. When Magellan's ship, the Victoria, left South America and headed West, he was hoping to find the Spice Islands after a few days. But his long, slow drift across the empty ocean lasted three months and twenty days--weeks of windless days and terrible suffering for the crew. They ate sawdust and even the leather fittings on the ship. The distances covered each day by the Victoria--meticulously recorded in Magellan's logbooks--correspond with the mild winds associated with El Nino. Magellan named the ocean the Pacific (Peaceful) because it was so calm. If his journey had taken place during another year, the great ocean may have had a stormier name. |
1532THE DOWNFALL OF THE INCA EMPIRE Were it not for heavy rainfall caused by El Nino, the hostile deserts of northern Peru which protected the Inca peoples from invasion would never have been crossed by the Spanish conqueror Francisco Pizarro, the new book claims. Instead of barren desert, Pizarro found lush vegetation for his horses, and plentiful water. Thanks to El Nino, Pizarro conquered the Incas in a matter of weeks. In any other year, he would never have even reached them. |
1588THE DEFEAT OF THE SPANISH ARMADA In the early summer of 1588, King Philip of Spain sent his 'Invincible Armada' of 125 ships into the English Channel as part of an invasion force that he hoped would bring about the fall of London and the capture of Elizabeth I. A fter the Battle of Gravelines on July 29, the Spanish fleet was hounded by Sir Francis Drake's ships for three days up into the North Sea where a great storm, triggered by El Nino, dealt the Spanish the fatal blow. The fleet was scattered, many ships damaged and others sunk. This was a turning point between an era of Spanish world domination and the rise of Britain to maritime supremacy. Elizabeth I had a medal struck to commemorate the deliverance, with the words 'God blew--and scattered their fleet.' In truth, it was El Nino. |
1770THE DISCOVERY OF AUSTRALIA When Captain Cook landed in Australia in 1770 he found a fertile land of plenty, ideal for colonisation. 'Vast quantities of grass grew' and 'a meadow as fine ever was seen,' he wrote. So many flowers were blooming that he called it Botany Bay. Yet when the first ships to set up the penal colony arrived 18 years later, the meadows had disappeared and the full streams had become mere trickles. It was an arid land. Cook had arrived during an El Nino year, when the place was far better watered than usual. Had he discovered it in a normal year, his report of it would have been far less encouraging--and the British government would have probably ignored Australia. |
1845THE GREAT IRISH POTATO FAMINE The fungus that causes potato blight, Phytophthora infestans, had been known for years in America, but Europe's cooler, drier climate prevented it taking hold over here. Until 1845 that is--an El Nino year. A consignment of potatoes arrived in Ireland from America carrying the fungus. The damper, warmer conditions were ideal for the fungus to spread. It decimated Ireland's crop. The resulting famine and emigration reverberate to this day in Ireland, Britain and America. The modern history of Ireland stems from the famine--and from El Nino. |
1912FAILURE OF SCOTT'S POLAR EXPEDITION IN February 1912, a demoralised Captain Scott and his party were struggling homeward on their doomed, epic journey to and from the South Pole. The conditions they experienced were severe-- persistent daily temperatures of below minus 30f, more than 20f colder than was normal. As the bitter weather continued through to March, the extreme cold lead to 'wooly' ice crystals forming on the runners of their sledges, slowing them to a crawl just when the men's fatigue was at its worst. A final ten-day blizzard destroyed them, when they were just one day's journey from a food depot. Scott wrote : "Our wreck is certainly due to this sudden advent of severe weather, which does not seem to have any satisfactory cause..." The cause was, in fact, El Nino. |
1912THE SINKING OF THE TITANIC AT the other end of the earth, icebergs were drifting down from the coast of Greenland in unusual numbers. El Nino had brought winds that disrupted the normal iceberg pattern, much colder weather and water so that the icebergs drifted further south. By April there were a thousand of them in the shipping lanesof the Atlantic, where usually there are none. 'I cannot imagine any condition which would cause a ship of this size to founder,' said the captain of the Titanic. Except El Nino, that is... |
1941GERMAN FAILURE TO TAKE MOSCOW THE fearsome German army had imagined a quick and easy passage to Moscow when Hitler launched his Eastern offensive in the autumn of 1941. However, that October the rains in Russia were exceptional. All roads became impassable ; all transport, from horses to tanks, became mired down and the German army was immobilised for a month. They reached the outskirts of Moscow far later than planned, just as the full force of winter arrived. And the winter of 1941-42 was the coldest for 200 years The German equipment froze solid, the soldiers stripped the local villagers of their clothing. in a desperate attempt to keep themselves warm and they exhausted their supplies of food and fuel. And through it all, the Russians fought on. The winter killed 100,000 Germans, frozen to death, more even than the Russian soldiers managed to kill. (It didn't help that Hitler had refused to let troops have winter uniforms because he thought they should have beaten the Russians by then.) It was the beginning of the end for Germany. The same thing, of course, had happened to Napoleon in 1812. In December 1941, Hitler's own meteorologist pointed out the similarity. He exploded. : 'Those damned meteorologists, they are always talking of Napoleon.' He was wrong. They were actually talking about El Nino. |
EL NINO (The Weather Phenomenon That Changed The World) By ROSS COUPER-JOHNSTON, published by Hodder and Stoughton, at £17.99 |
This review was written by JULIAN CHAMPKIN |
